House GOP Revolt Grows as Republicans Join Push to Force Vote on ACA Subsidies

A growing bloc of House Republicans is breaking with Speaker Mike Johnson to back an effort that would force a floor vote on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies before they expire at the end of 2025, a rare public rebellion that underscores deep divisions inside the GOP over health care, federal spending and the party’s political standing heading into 2026. [ABC News report] At stake are premium tax credits first expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic and later extended through 2025; without congressional action, roughly 24 million people who buy coverage on the ACA marketplaces are expected to face steep premium hikes starting January 1, 2026. [Washington Post analysis]

Image Illustration. Photo by Ethan Wilkinson on Unsplash

A High-Stakes Clash Over Obamacare Subsidies

The internal GOP fight comes as both the House and Senate scramble to respond to the looming expiration of the enhanced subsidies, which were originally enacted in 2021 under the American Rescue Plan and later extended in the Inflation Reduction Act through tax year 2025. According to a Congressional Research Service summary, the temporary changes capped what many households pay for benchmark ACA plans at 8.5% of their income and removed the previous income cutoff at 400% of the federal poverty level, dramatically lowering premiums for millions of middle-class consumers. [CRS background on ACA premium credits]

Health policy experts estimate that if the enhanced subsidies lapse on December 31, 2025, average premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees would jump by hundreds of dollars per month for many families, with some lower- and middle-income Americans potentially priced out of coverage entirely. Analyses of similar subsidy “cliffs” by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and the Kaiser Family Foundation have found that ending the enhanced credits would reduce coverage and increase the number of uninsured, particularly among adults with incomes between 150% and 400% of the poverty level. [CBO projections on ACA subsidies] [KFF analysis of enhanced subsidies’ impact]

Discharge Petitions: A Rare Challenge to the Speaker

At the center of the House drama are two little-used procedural weapons: discharge petitions that allow rank-and-file members to bypass leadership and force a vote on a bill if they can secure 218 signatures — a full House majority. One petition, spearheaded by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Pennsylvania Republican known for bipartisan dealmaking, would bring up a two-year extension of the enhanced ACA tax credits with additional guardrails, including new income limits and minimum monthly premiums for subsidized plans. [Roll Call breakdown of Fitzpatrick petition]

A second petition, led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., and Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans of Virginia, aims to force a vote on a somewhat narrower bipartisan bill offering a shorter extension — one year — along with new income caps on eligibility for the beefed-up credits. That effort has attracted dozens of signatures from both parties and is viewed by some Democrats as the more politically palatable compromise. [Washington Post reporting on Gottheimer–Kiggans petition]

Initially, Fitzpatrick’s petition had just a handful of backers, but in subsequent days more Republicans — many representing politically competitive suburban districts — signed on, defying clear signals from Johnson and other GOP leaders that ACA subsidy extensions should not be part of the party’s health package. In total, at least 11 House Republicans have now attached their names to one or both subsidy-focused discharge petitions, according to reporting from The Washington Post and ABC News. [Washington Post tally of GOP signers]

Speaker Johnson’s Alternative Plan — Without Subsidy Extension

Even as moderates mount their procedural challenge, Johnson and House GOP leaders are pressing ahead with their own health care package, which they hope to bring to the floor before lawmakers leave Washington for the holidays. The plan, unveiled on December 13, focuses on measures like expanding association health plans, tightening rules on pharmacy benefit managers and broadening the use of employer-backed Health Reimbursement Arrangements — but it does not renew the enhanced ACA subsidies. [Reuters summary of House GOP health plan]

Johnson has argued that extending the pandemic-era subsidies in their current form is fiscally irresponsible and does little to tackle underlying cost drivers in the health system — a view shared by many conservatives, who contend that the credits funnel taxpayer dollars to insurance companies and fuel premium inflation. Right-leaning policy groups and several Republican senators have pushed instead for alternatives that redirect federal assistance into tax-advantaged health accounts or more flexible state-based programs. [Senate GOP alternative proposals overview]

Moderates Warn of Backlash if Premiums Spike

For moderate Republicans, particularly those from districts President Joe Biden carried in 2020, the politics look very different. They warn that allowing premiums to surge in 2026 would invite a voter backlash and undercut GOP efforts to present themselves as problem-solvers on kitchen-table issues.

In interviews with outlets including Roll Call, Fox News and ABC News, lawmakers like Fitzpatrick, Rep. Mike Lawler of New York and Rep. Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania have framed the subsidy extension fight as a matter of basic economic security for their constituents — noting that many middle-income families, self-employed workers and early retirees now rely on ACA plans for coverage. [Roll Call interviews with moderate Republicans] [Fox News coverage of GOP "Obamacare rebellion"]

Nonpartisan analyses suggest those concerns are well-founded. The Kaiser Family Foundation has estimated that the enhanced ACA credits, combined with record outreach funding, helped drive marketplace enrollment above 21 million in 2024 — a historic high and a roughly 80% increase from 2014, the first full year of the ACA exchanges. [KFF data on record marketplace enrollment]

Senate Roadblocks and a Tight Calendar

Even if House moderates manage to force a vote and pass a bipartisan extension, the effort faces substantial obstacles in the Senate. On December 11, senators rejected both a Democratic bill offering a three-year clean extension of the subsidies and a Republican alternative that would have steered federal funds into health savings accounts instead. The Democratic measure secured 51 votes, short of the 60 needed to advance. [Senate vote coverage]

Any discharge petition that reached 218 signatures would still run up against House rules requiring a seven-workday waiting period before the bill can come to the floor — a clock that, at this point in December, likely extends beyond the chamber’s scheduled adjournment for the holidays. That means that, barring a leadership decision to fast-track similar language, the petitions are unlikely to prevent the subsidies from expiring on schedule, though they could shape the debate over retroactive action in early 2026. [House rules explanation on discharge petitions]

What It Means for Consumers and the 2026 Elections

For consumers, the most immediate question is how much premiums could rise if Congress fails to reach a deal. The CBO has previously estimated that making the enhanced subsidies permanent would cost federal taxpayers roughly $200 billion over a decade, but that letting them expire would increase premiums and reduce marketplace enrollment by several million people over time. [CBO cost estimate of permanent ACA subsidy expansion]

The politics are equally fraught. Democrats have made protecting the ACA a centerpiece of their national message for more than a decade and are already blaming Republicans for what they call an avoidable “premium spike.” Republicans, meanwhile, are divided between conservatives who see the subsidies as an unsustainable expansion of government and swing-district members who fear being held accountable if families lose affordable coverage.

With polls consistently showing health care costs among voters’ top concerns, analysts say the outcome of the subsidy fight could reverberate across the 2026 midterms — influencing not just control of Congress, but also broader debates over the future of Obamacare and the role of government in the health system. [Pew survey on health care as a top voter issue]

A Test of Leadership — and of the GOP’s Health Care Vision

In the short term, the rebellion against Johnson’s strategy is unlikely to topple his speakership. But it does expose a fragile coalition and highlights the enduring difficulty Republicans have faced since 2010 in uniting around a coherent alternative to the ACA.

As the petitions gain signatures and negotiations continue, millions of Americans shopping for coverage on the ACA exchanges this fall are watching closely. Whether subsidies continue unchanged, are trimmed back, or are replaced with a fundamentally different model will shape not only their household budgets, but also the next chapter in the country’s long-running fight over health reform.