Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued one of his starkest warnings yet to Kyiv and its Western backers, suggesting that Russia is prepared to seize additional Ukrainian territory if ongoing attempts at peace talks collapse. In a meeting with top defense officials in mid-December 2025, Putin declared that Moscow would achieve its goals in Ukraine “either by negotiation or by force,” making clear that the Kremlin’s territorial ambitions extend well beyond the areas it already occupies.

Image Illustration. Photo by Andy Cat on Unsplash

The comments, carried by several major news agencies, are being read in European capitals and Washington as a calibrated attempt to pressure Ukraine and the West into accepting a settlement that would formalize Russia’s control over large swaths of Ukrainian land—while holding out the threat of further advances if they refuse.

A New Round of Nuclear-Backed Coercion

Speaking to senior military commanders in Moscow, Putin framed the war as a struggle over “historic Russian lands” and insisted that Russia has the military capacity to push further west if its conditions for peace are not met. Reuters reported that Putin warned Russia would take “more territory” if peace proposals backed by the United States and some European governments were rejected, while reaffirming Moscow’s claims over Crimea and four Ukrainian regions it moved to annex in 2022—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. In parallel coverage, the Associated Press highlighted his threat to "extend" Russia’s gains in Ukraine if U.S.-brokered peace efforts fail, underscoring a dual strategy of diplomatic engagement and overt coercion.

The remarks come amid reports that Russia is dedicating more than 5 percent of its GDP to defense in 2025—a wartime allocation rivaling or exceeding late–Cold War levels, according to Putin’s own defense minister. The signal is clear: the Kremlin is preparing for a long conflict and wants NATO to believe that time and firepower are on Russia’s side.

How Much of Ukraine Is Already Under Russian Control?

Nearly three years into the full-scale invasion, Russia holds roughly a fifth of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory, including Crimea and large parts of the Donbas and southern regions. An analysis drawing on data from the Institute for the Study of War estimates that, as of late 2025, Russia controls about 20 percent of Ukraine’s land—some 45,000 square miles, an area roughly comparable to the U.S. state of Pennsylvania.

Other independent counts broadly align with that figure. A detailed August 2025 mapping project by Al Jazeera, also based on ISW data, concluded that Russia occupied about one-fifth of Ukraine—around 114,500 square kilometers—while Ukrainian forces held a shrinking line of defensive positions stretching more than 1,000 kilometers across the east and south. In 2024 alone, Russia gained more than 4,100 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, according to geolocated evidence collected by the Institute for the Study of War and cited by Al Jazeera—an area about five times the size of New York City.

Why Territorial Concessions Are Politically Toxic in Kyiv

Behind Putin’s threats lies a central question: could Ukraine ever agree to give up the land Russia already holds in exchange for peace? Legally and politically, the answer is fraught.

Ukraine’s constitution explicitly prohibits ceding territory, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly vowed not to “gift” land to Moscow. Public opinion, hardened by years of occupation and large-scale atrocities documented in areas retaken from Russian forces, makes any formal recognition of territorial loss politically explosive in Kyiv. Ukrainian officials have also warned that any such deal would merely pause the conflict, inviting future Russian offensives once Moscow has rebuilt its forces.

NATO’s Response: More Arms, More Spending, but No Troops

While Putin dismisses Western warnings about a potential Russian attack on NATO as “hysteria,” his rhetoric is directly shaping defense policy in Europe. Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, NATO members have embarked on a historic military buildup. According to data compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military spending climbed to a record $2.72 trillion in 2024, with NATO countries accounting for roughly 55 percent of that amount.

Within the alliance, defense budgets have surged. SIPRI estimates NATO members spent about $1.51 trillion on their militaries in 2024, with European members alone accounting for $454 billion, a near 9 percent increase year-on-year and a 16 percent jump compared with 2023. For the first time since the 2 percent of GDP benchmark was agreed a decade ago, a majority of NATO members are either meeting or exceeding it, reflecting how Russia’s invasion has transformed threat perceptions across the continent.

In 2024, NATO’s European allies and Canada collectively invested roughly $380–430 billion in defense, amounting to just over 2 percent of their combined GDP, according to alliance officials and independent tallies. At a 2025 summit, NATO leaders went further, pledging to work toward total “defense and security-related” spending of 5 percent of GDP by 2035, with at least 3.5 percent earmarked specifically for military capabilities and 1.5 percent for critical infrastructure and resilience.

Escalation Risks: From Donbas to the NATO Border

Putin’s latest threats are not taking place in a vacuum. On the ground, Russia has been slowly advancing, particularly in Donetsk and parts of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, even as its armed forces sustain heavy losses. The Washington-based Russia Matters project, drawing on ISW data, notes that from February 2022 to early December 2025, Russia has added nearly 29,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory to its control, consolidating a sprawling land bridge along the Sea of Azov and deepening its foothold in the Donbas industrial region.

In 2025, Russian forces also opened or expanded fronts in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region, capturing settlements such as Kostiantynivka and securing control over more than 100 square kilometers there, according to open-source assessments cited in Western media and online databases. These incremental advances, while not decisive militarily, allow Moscow to maintain pressure along a 1,000-kilometer front and complicate Ukraine’s already stretched defensive posture.

A Strategic Message to Western Audiences

Putin’s latest remarks are aimed as much at Western public opinion as at elites in Kyiv. By warning that Ukraine risks “losing more territory” if it refuses his terms, he is effectively testing the resolve of NATO governments and their voters, who have shouldered the financial and political costs of sustaining Ukraine’s war effort.

At the same time, his insistence that Russia is open to peace—but only under conditions that would lock in Russian gains and severely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty—highlights the central dilemma for Western policymakers: whether to push Kyiv toward an unpopular settlement now, or to prepare for a protracted conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary that shows little sign of backing down.

Conclusion: Peace Talks Under the Shadow of the Map

Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion began, the map of Ukraine is at the center of every diplomatic calculation. Putin’s warning that Ukraine could lose even more territory if it rejects peace offers is both a threat and an admission: Moscow believes it has the capacity to keep pushing the front line—and that Western unity may fray over time.

For Kyiv, accepting such a bargain would challenge constitutional law and national identity, while for NATO governments, pressuring Ukraine into concessions risks validating the use of force to redraw borders in Europe. As long as those contradictions remain unresolved, any talk of peace will unfold under the shadow of shifting front lines—and the very real possibility that the territorial map of Ukraine has not yet stopped changing.