When President Donald Trump pardoned Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas and his wife in a federal bribery and conspiracy case, the move was widely seen as another expansive use of executive clemency in his second term. But just days later, Trump turned on the South Texas lawmaker, denouncing him as “disloyal” for filing to run for reelection as a Democrat instead of switching parties — a public clash that lays bare Trump’s transactional view of pardons, the fragility of party coalitions, and the stakes of the 2026 midterm elections.

Image Illustration. Photo by Brett Wharton on Unsplash

A Pardon Followed by a Public Rebuke

Trump announced the pardon of Cuellar and his wife, Imelda, on Wednesday, wiping away federal corruption charges tied to allegations that the couple accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars from entities linked to Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank in exchange for advancing their interests in Congress. Reporting by The Washington Post and the Associated Press indicates the alleged scheme was worth about $600,000.

Days later, Cuellar filed for reelection in Texas’s 28th Congressional District — still as a Democrat — and made clear he had no plans to change his party affiliation. In response, Trump took to his Truth Social platform on Sunday, blasting what he called “Such a lack of LOYALTY” and warning, “next time, no more Mr. Nice guy,” according to coverage from PBS NewsHour and the Associated Press.

Cuellar’s Calculus: Conservative Democrat in a Border District

In a Fox News appearance after Trump’s broadside, Cuellar described himself as a “good old conservative Democrat” and insisted that his identity was, in the order he invoked from Lyndon B. Johnson, American, Texan and Democrat — not a partisan first. He said he was ready to work with Trump “to see where we can find common ground,” especially on immigration, a stance he has taken for years as one of his party’s more moderate, border-focused voices. These comments were reported by outlets including ABC News and PBS.

Cuellar has represented Texas’s 28th District since 2005, consistently running and winning as a Democrat in a region stretching from the San Antonio suburbs to the U.S.-Mexico border. The district has long been competitive, with shifting margins as national politics polarize. In 2020, Joe Biden carried the district by about 7 percentage points, while in 2022 Cuellar survived a strong primary challenge from the left and then won the general election by single digits — a pattern that underscores both his vulnerability and his staying power. Historical election data compiled by Ballotpedia and the Texas Legislative Council show that Cuellar’s margins have tightened as the district has become a target for Republicans in redistricting and campaign spending.

Cuellar’s stated refusal to switch parties reflects a broader dynamic in South Texas, where many Hispanic voters hold culturally conservative views but maintain long-standing ties to the Democratic Party. In 2020, Democrats still won a majority of the Hispanic vote nationwide, roughly 59 percent to Republicans’ 38 percent according to Pew Research Center estimates, but Republicans made notable inroads among Latino voters in Texas border counties. Those trends have turned districts like Cuellar’s into high-priority battlegrounds for both parties. { "type": "text", "text": "Pew Research Center data", "marks": [{ "type": "link", "attrs": { "href": "https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/03/04/behind-bidens-2020-victory/", "target": "_blank" } }] }

Trump’s Expansive Use of Clemency and Expectations of Loyalty

The dust-up with Cuellar comes against the backdrop of Trump’s unusually aggressive use of the pardon power during his second term. By mid-2025, Trump had granted executive clemency to more than 1,600 people — including mass pardons of around 1,500 defendants tied to the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack and a range of high-profile fraudsters, drug traffickers and political allies. These figures are drawn from analyses by the Office of the Pardon Attorney and public records summarized by Wikipedia’s clemency list, as well as reporting by major outlets.

A recent analysis by Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee estimated that Trump’s broad clemency decisions could deprive victims and taxpayers of roughly $1.3 billion in restitution and fines, because many pardons explicitly erased financial penalties that had been ordered by courts. The committee’s staff memo argues that Trump’s approach represents “an astonishing giveaway to lawbreakers” and could also diminish funding for victim compensation programs that rely on those payments. The estimate comes from a June 17, 2025, Democratic House Judiciary Committee analysis.

Cuellar’s case fits a familiar pattern: Trump uses the pardon to intervene in politically-charged prosecutions and then publicly demands, or at least strongly implies he expects, loyalty in return. In his Truth Social posts, Trump emphasized that it was Democratic President Joe Biden’s Justice Department that brought the charges against Cuellar, framing his own action as a corrective to a “weaponized” system — a theme that has animated much of his second-term rhetoric on law enforcement and the courts. Coverage by The Guardian and the Associated Press highlights how Trump explicitly linked his clemency decision to expectations about Cuellar’s future political behavior.

Midterm Math: Why One Texas Seat Matters

Trump’s fury is not only personal; it is also strategic. With Republicans holding only a narrow majority in the U.S. House, individual seats like Cuellar’s loom large heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Trump’s post suggested that he viewed the pardon as a way to flip the seat or at least to neutralize a Democratic incumbent in a district Republicans have already tried to tilt in their favor through redistricting. Texas lawmakers redrew congressional lines in 2021 and again adjusted them ahead of the 2024 cycle, seeking to shore up GOP prospects in several border and suburban seats, according to analyses by the Texas Tribune and ProPublica. Cuellar’s district was among those scrutinized for partisan advantage.

Nationally, control of the House has been decided by slim margins. After the 2022 midterms, Republicans secured a majority with just a handful of seats; in several cycles this century, fewer than 20 seats have separated the parties in the chamber. Historical tallies from the Office of the Historian of the U.S. House of Representatives show multiple Congresses since 2000 where the majority’s edge was fewer than 15 seats — making every potentially flippable district a critical piece of the parties’ national strategies.

Party Switching in U.S. Politics: Rare but Symbolic

Trump’s demand that Cuellar reward a presidential pardon with a party switch spotlights a phenomenon that, while attention-grabbing, remains relatively rare in modern U.S. politics. Since 1995, roughly two dozen members of Congress have formally switched from one major party to the other while in office, according to research compiled by the Congressional Research Service and summarized by academic studies of party realignment. Those moves often reflect ideological shifts in a lawmaker’s district as much as personal loyalty or opportunism.

Political scientists have long noted that Southern and border-state Democrats face unique pressures as the national party has moved left on social issues while local electorates retain more conservative leanings. Some, like former Alabama Rep. Parker Griffith or Louisiana’s former Sen. John Kennedy, eventually joined the GOP. Others, like Cuellar so far, have tried to hold the line as centrist or conservative Democrats, betting that their personal brand and constituent services can outweigh national headwinds. Studies published in journals such as Political Research Quarterly highlight how these members often face primary threats from the left and general-election challenges from the right, making them some of the most electorally vulnerable politicians in Congress.

What Comes Next for Cuellar, Trump and the Pardon Debate

For now, Cuellar appears determined to test whether a Democrat who is outspoken on border security and willing to cooperate with a Republican president can still survive in a polarized era — without acceding to Trump’s demand for partisan conversion. He has said he is “ready to win reelection again” and that the pardon “clears the air,” but that “nothing has changed” about his party identification, according to quotes reported by Newsweek.

Trump, meanwhile, has signaled that Cuellar’s choice could influence how he wields his clemency powers in the future, warning that there will be “no more Mr. Nice guy” if beneficiaries do not show what he considers proper gratitude. That posture is likely to intensify scrutiny of his pardon decisions, which critics already argue have prioritized political benefit over neutral standards of justice. Legal scholars and good-government groups have called for reforms — from greater transparency in the Office of the Pardon Attorney to constitutional amendments narrowing the pardon power — though such changes face steep political and legal hurdles. Proposals discussed by organizations like the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law range from statutory reporting requirements to independent advisory commissions.

The confrontation between Trump and Cuellar thus reaches beyond a single Texas race. It crystallizes a series of national questions: Is a presidential pardon an act of mercy, a corrective to systemic injustice, or a political favor that demands reciprocity? How much room remains in either party for ideological outliers and cross-pressured incumbents? And as the 2026 midterms approach, will voters reward or punish a lawmaker who accepted a Republican president’s pardon but refused to change the letter next to his name?