As artillery exchanges and airstrikes continue along the 800‑kilometer Thai‑Cambodian border, Bangkok has quietly begun signaling that it is prepared to enter a new ceasefire — but only if Phnom Penh accepts a set of political and military conditions that Thailand says are essential for “durable peace.” The debate over those conditions is now at the heart of efforts by ASEAN and outside powers to halt the bloodiest confrontation between the two neighbors in decades.
The current fighting, which flared again in July 2025 around disputed temple complexes and forested highlands, is the latest chapter in a century‑old border dispute dating back to colonial‑era French maps and a 1962 International Court of Justice ruling that awarded the hilltop Preah Vihear temple to Cambodia.
Disagreements over the temple and surrounding land have periodically erupted into violence, notably in 2011 when exchanges of artillery fire killed at least a dozen soldiers and forced tens of thousands of villagers to flee their homes near the frontier. Fighting around Preah Vihear and nearby Ta Moan and Ta Krabey temples displaced about 50,000 people in one 2011 flare‑up alone.
The 2025 conflict has been deadlier and broader. July clashes left at least 16 soldiers and civilians dead on the Thai side and forced the evacuation of around 130,000 people from Thai border provinces. Cambodia’s defense ministry has reported more than 130,000 of its own citizens displaced across four border provinces.
By mid‑December, the renewed hostilities had uprooted more than half a million people in total on both sides of the border, making this the worst cross‑border fighting between Thailand and Cambodia in recent history. Recent reporting suggests over 500,000 civilians have been displaced and nearly 40 people killed since the conflict reignited in late November.
The closure of the Poipet border crossing — one of the busiest land links between the two countries — has stranded thousands of migrant workers. Thai authorities say they are working to repatriate up to 6,000 Thai citizens stuck at Poipet after Cambodia shut the checkpoint citing security concerns. The United Nations and humanitarian agencies have warned of overcrowded shelters, limited access to clean water and the risk of unexploded ordnance in areas hit by shelling.
The conflict is unfolding against a stark military imbalance. Thailand fields one of Southeast Asia’s larger armed forces and significantly outspends Cambodia on defense.
According to the Global Firepower Index 2025, Thailand ranks 25th in the world and third within ASEAN, while Cambodia stands at 95th. Thai forces number more than 600,000 personnel across active, reserve and paramilitary units, compared with roughly 231,000 for Cambodia, which has far fewer reservists.
Bangkok is also estimated to spend about $5.9 billion on defense in 2025, versus Cambodia’s roughly $860 million. That gap has allowed Thailand to deploy modern air assets and a large fleet of armored vehicles, while Cambodia has leaned more heavily on artillery and multiple‑launch rocket systems for deterrence and leverage along the frontier.
Thai officials have publicly rejected suggestions that foreign pressure — including a high‑profile push by former U.S. President Donald Trump — is forcing them toward a truce. Yet behind the scenes, diplomats say Bangkok has outlined a conditional offer: Thailand will accept a ceasefire if Cambodia agrees to measures that address what Thai leaders describe as “structural drivers” of the conflict.
Pull‑back of heavy weapons from designated buffer zones along contested stretches of the border, especially around key temple sites and densely populated villages.
A verifiable freeze on new fortifications, mine‑laying and military construction in disputed areas, building on past allegations that Cambodia has recently laid new landmines near the frontier — charges Phnom Penh denies.
A security framework that keeps primary responsibility for border management with the two national militaries, while accepting a limited role for ASEAN monitoring rather than a full UN peacekeeping presence.
Officials familiar with the talks say Thailand remains wary of any international force on its soil, a stance consistent with its resistance to UN peacekeepers during the 2011 Preah Vihear crisis, when Bangkok pushed instead for bilateral talks supplemented by ASEAN mediation rather than UN troops.
Cambodia, for its part, insists that any viable ceasefire must include robust third‑party involvement — a demand rooted in what Phnom Penh sees as a pattern of failed or short‑lived bilateral arrangements. During earlier crises, Cambodian leaders called for UN peacekeepers and international observers, arguing that “bilateral negotiations do not work” without neutral guarantors.
In 2011, Cambodian officials appealed directly to the UN Security Council and urged the deployment of a buffer force after clashes around Preah Vihear. Prime Minister Hun Sen at the time publicly asked for UN troops to guarantee a permanent ceasefire, contending that Thai forces could not be trusted to respect demilitarized zones without external oversight.
That preference carries into today’s crisis. Cambodian officials have welcomed ASEAN’s stepped‑up role and backed Malaysian‑led diplomacy that produced a U.S.‑supported truce in October 2025 — one that has since frayed amid mutual accusations of violations. When Trump announced earlier this month that he had secured a renewed ceasefire by phone, both Thai and Cambodian officials countered that fighting was still under way and no binding deal had been reached.
Regional and global bodies are again trying to bridge the gap. Malaysia, the current ASEAN chair, is hosting a special meeting of foreign ministers aimed at reviving the October framework and ironing out verification mechanisms for any new ceasefire. The United Nations, which in past episodes has urged “maximum restraint” and supported ASEAN efforts rather than deploying its own troops, is likely to play a supporting role.
Analysts note that this division of labor — ASEAN in the lead, the UN in the background — echoes the Security Council’s approach during earlier clashes. In 2011, the council backed regional mediation and called for a permanent ceasefire, but stopped short of authorizing a peacekeeping mission on the ground, effectively nudging Bangkok and Phnom Penh back toward negotiation. At the time, the council encouraged the two governments to work with Indonesia, then ASEAN chair, to craft an “effective dialogue” instead of a UN deployment.
Whether Thailand’s emerging offer and Cambodia’s demands can be reconciled will determine if the border quiets or slides into a protracted low‑intensity war. Diplomats say one possible compromise would see both sides agree to pull back heavy weapons, invite a small ASEAN monitoring mission and recommit — in writing — to earlier map‑based understandings pending a longer‑term political settlement of the boundary.
Yet the politics in both capitals are volatile. In Thailand, the conflict has intersected with domestic instability and leadership changes, while in Cambodia, nationalist narratives about defending sacred territory and resisting Thai pressure remain powerful. On both sides, hard‑liners have historically accused rivals of exploiting the border issue for electoral gain.
For now, the guns along the frontier have not fallen silent — despite headline‑grabbing claims of imminent ceasefires. The central question is no longer whether Thailand is ready to halt the fighting; its officials say they are. The question is whether Cambodia will accept the conditions Bangkok is attaching, and whether ASEAN‑backed monitors and guarantees can be crafted in a way that satisfies both neighbors’ security anxieties.
Until that diplomatic puzzle is solved, villagers on both sides of the border will continue to live under the shadow of artillery fire, airstrikes and a conflict that too often seems trapped between history and hard politics.
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