Israel and Lebanon are once again edging toward a potentially wider war, as Israeli officials and military analysts warn that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) may be preparing a large-scale offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The specter of a new front opening comes after more than a year of near-daily cross‑border fire since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent campaign in Gaza.

Image Illustration. Photo by Hobi industri on Unsplash

Any major Israeli assault on Lebanon would risk drawing in regional powers, displacing hundreds of thousands more civilians, and deepening an already severe humanitarian crisis across the Levant. It would also test the limits of international diplomacy, as the United Nations prepares for the end of its long‑running peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon and warns of the fragility of the current calm along the frontier.

Border Skirmishes Harden Into Entrenched Confrontation

The current confrontation along the Israel–Lebanon border began in the immediate aftermath of the October 2023 Hamas attack, when Hezbollah opened fire on northern Israel in what it described as support for Gaza. Since then, Israeli forces and Hezbollah have traded artillery fire, drone strikes and targeted assassinations on an almost daily basis, devastating villages on both sides of the frontier.

By late 2024, the cross‑border conflict had escalated into a 14‑month war that only subsided following a ceasefire in November 2024, according to a United Nations account of the crisis in southern Lebanon. UN officials say that fighting since 2023 has been the worst since the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah war, prompting the Security Council to move toward ending the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mandate by the end of 2026.

Israel has already carried out ground incursions into southern Lebanon. Under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal in late 2024, the IDF launched a ground offensive aimed at pushing Hezbollah away from the border and destroying its military infrastructure. In early 2025, Israeli troops withdrew from most Lebanese border villages but remained in five fortified positions inside Lebanon, effectively creating a buffer zone while awaiting a full Lebanese army deployment in the area. Israeli officials have warned they are prepared to stay in those positions for an extended period to enforce Hezbollah’s pullback north of the Litani River.

Signals of a Larger Israeli Operation

Against this backdrop, a series of developments has fueled speculation that Israel is preparing for a larger campaign in Lebanon. Analysts point to increased Israeli airstrikes deeper into Lebanese territory, the construction of permanent fortifications in the buffer zone and high‑profile statements by Israeli leaders promising to secure the north "at any cost." While officials have not publicly confirmed detailed plans, the pattern of military moves suggests preparations for an operation designed to significantly degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and push its forces farther from the border.

Hezbollah, widely considered the most heavily armed non‑state actor in the Middle East, is believed to possess an arsenal of more than 100,000 rockets and missiles, including precision‑guided munitions capable of striking deep inside Israel. The group is backed by Iran and has combat experience from its intervention in the Syrian civil war, making any confrontation with Israel far more lethal than previous rounds of border skirmishes, according to security assessments by Western governments and think tanks.

Human Cost of the Gaza War Casts a Long Shadow

Any Israeli move to dramatically expand military operations in Lebanon must be understood in light of the extraordinary human toll of the ongoing war in Gaza, which has reshaped regional politics and public opinion. The October 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel killed an estimated 1,139 people and led to the abduction of more than 250 hostages, according to revised figures from Israeli authorities cited in international media. A recent report by Amnesty International concluded that Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups committed crimes against humanity during the attack and in their treatment of hostages.

Israel’s response in Gaza has been devastating. By early October 2025, the Gaza Ministry of Health, cited by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), reported more than 67,000 Palestinians killed and nearly 170,000 injured since October 7, 2023. Children account for about 30 percent of the dead, with more than 20,000 minors killed in the enclave. The UN’s regional economic commission, ESCWA, has described October 2023 as the deadliest month in any 21st-century war to date. In that month alone, more people were killed in Gaza than in any single month of conflicts in Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan in recent decades, the commission said.

The overall level of global harm from explosive weapons has also spiked. Monitoring group Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) calculated that 2023 saw the highest number of civilian casualties from explosive violence since it began tracking such data in 2010, with Israeli operations in Gaza accounting for roughly 37 percent of all civilian casualties worldwide that year. The group’s figures underscore how central the Gaza conflict has been to the global burden of modern warfare.

Displacement and Humanitarian Risks in Lebanon

While international attention has focused on Gaza, the humanitarian situation in Lebanon has quietly deteriorated under the pressure of the border conflict, a deep economic crisis and longstanding political paralysis. Repeated Israeli airstrikes have depopulated swaths of southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah rocket fire has emptied Israeli towns and kibbutzim in the north. Tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border remain displaced, many housed in temporary accommodations or staying with relatives further inland.

Lebanon, already hosting more than 800,000 registered Syrian refugees according to UN figures, has limited capacity to absorb additional waves of displaced people. The United Nations and humanitarian agencies have warned that intensified fighting in the south could tip the country’s fragile economy and public services into outright collapse, exacerbating shortages of electricity, medicine and clean water.

The looming withdrawal of UNIFIL adds another layer of uncertainty. A UN delegation that visited Lebanon in December 2025 to discuss the mission’s exit strategy acknowledged fears of a security vacuum in southern Lebanon once peacekeepers depart by the end of 2026. Lebanese officials have appealed for a replacement mechanism to prevent renewed large‑scale hostilities along the border.

Regional and International Stakes

A major Israeli offensive in Lebanon would not be confined to the immediate border region. Hezbollah’s deep ties to Iran, and the presence of other Iran‑aligned groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, mean that an escalation could quickly become a region‑wide confrontation involving missile salvos, cyberattacks and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and eastern Mediterranean.

The United States, which has deployed additional naval assets to the eastern Mediterranean since 2023, has repeatedly urged Israel and Hezbollah to avoid a full‑scale war, warning that such a conflict could destabilize global energy markets and further strain already stretched humanitarian systems. European governments, many of which contribute troops to UNIFIL, have likewise pressed for diplomatic solutions grounded in the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah war and called for Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River and the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south.

A Narrow Window for Diplomacy

For now, the prospect of a large‑scale Israeli assault on Lebanon remains a warning rather than an announced policy. Yet the convergence of hardened front lines, the partial IDF presence inside Lebanon, UNIFIL’s planned departure and the unresolved trauma of the Gaza war has created a combustible environment in which miscalculation or a single deadly incident could quickly spiral into a broader war.

Diplomats say the coming months will be critical. Efforts to finalize arrangements for Lebanese army deployment in the south, clarify the future of the buffer zone and secure further ceasefire guarantees could determine whether the border remains a low‑intensity flashpoint or becomes the front line of the next major Middle East war. As civilians on both sides of the frontier brace for what might come, the stakes—for Lebanon, Israel and the wider region—could hardly be higher.