As Wall Street, Hollywood and Washington digest Netflix’s nearly $83 billion agreement to buy most of Warner Bros. Discovery, one veteran of the capital’s regulatory trenches is offering a blunt prediction: the deal will be approved, and President Donald Trump is likely to ultimately back it.

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Andrew Lipman, a longtime communications and antitrust lawyer at Morgan, Lewis & Bockius, told investors this week that Netflix’s bid for Warner Bros. is unlikely to encounter insurmountable roadblocks despite an intensifying political storm and a hostile counteroffer from Paramount Skydance. Lipman said he expects the transaction to clear regulators and close, describing the competing Paramount play as no less complex from a legal perspective. In his words, “the deal gets done.”

A Blockbuster Deal in a Reshaped Streaming Landscape

Netflix’s agreement, announced on Friday, would see the streaming giant pay about $82.7 billion including debt for Warner Bros.’ studio and streaming assets — a trove that includes Warner Bros. Pictures, HBO, and HBO Max, as well as franchises from “Harry Potter” and DC’s “Batman” to “Game of Thrones.” If completed, it would rank among the largest media mergers in history, rivaling Disney’s 2019 purchase of most of 21st Century Fox.

Paramount Skydance, led by David Ellison, has responded with a hostile bid valued at roughly $108–109 billion for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including its cable networks. The offer, made directly to shareholders after months of failed private talks, includes an all-cash tender of $30 per share and assigns about $25 billion of value to Warner’s remaining linear TV business. Netflix’s deal, by contrast, focuses on the studio and streaming portfolio and excludes CNN and some cable assets, which would be spun off.

Sarandos Courts Trump as the White House Looms Large

An unusual ingredient in this media megamerger is the role of the Oval Office. Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos met with Trump at the White House in mid‑November, in what several outlets describe as a charm offensive aimed at smoothing the political path for the Warner deal. According to reporting based on people familiar with the meeting, Trump told Sarandos that Warner Bros. should sell to the highest bidder — a principle the Netflix executive readily endorsed, while arguing that the company is not a monopoly and has recently weathered subscriber losses. Sarandos also sought to position Netflix as merely the “fifth- or sixth-biggest” TV distributor in the U.S., rather than a dominant gatekeeper.

Trump has, in turn, made clear he intends to play an active role. Speaking publicly over the weekend, he said Netflix’s enlarged footprint “could be a problem” for competition and pledged to be personally involved in vetting the merger — an extraordinary stance for a sitting president in relation to an individual transaction. The Justice Department’s antitrust division and the Federal Trade Commission will still conduct the formal review, but Trump’s comments underline the degree to which politics could color the process.

Paramount’s Trump Ties vs. Netflix’s Jobs Pitch

Lipman’s confidence that the Netflix–Warner deal wins approval is notable precisely because Trump’s orbit is deeply entangled with the rival bid. Paramount’s offer is backed in part by Affinity Partners, the investment firm founded by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son‑in‑law, as well as sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Ethics experts have already raised alarms about the potential for conflicts of interest if Trump weighs in on a deal in which his extended family has a financial stake.

Netflix is countering that political gravitational pull with an aggressive economic pitch. At a UBS media conference, Sarandos highlighted that Netflix productions supported roughly 140,000 jobs and added an estimated $125 billion to the U.S. economy between 2020 and 2024, working with some 500 independent production companies on about 1,000 original projects across all 50 states. Sarandos also contrasted Netflix’s plans with Paramount’s promised $6 billion in “synergies,” a euphemism widely understood to mean job cuts, arguing that Netflix would be a net job creator rather than a cost‑cutter.

How Big Would a Netflix–Warner Giant Really Be?

At the heart of the regulatory debate is a simple question: would combining Netflix and Warner Bros. distort competition in streaming and television? Netflix executives insist the answer is no, and early data suggests the picture is more nuanced than some critics suggest.

Netflix co‑CEO Greg Peters told investors that Netflix today accounts for about 8% of total U.S. TV viewing hours, based on Nielsen figures that include both linear and streaming platforms. Folding in HBO and Warner’s streaming output would increase that share to roughly 9%, still trailing YouTube and a combined Paramount–Warner at around 14%. A separate analysis by Bank of America, using a narrower “total TV streaming” lens, estimated that a Netflix–Warner combo would control about 21% of streaming time versus 8% for a Paramount–Warner tie‑up, with YouTube still ahead at 28%.

Those figures are likely to feature prominently in any antitrust review. U.S. regulators in recent years have become more skeptical of large tech and media mergers, but they still typically weigh market share, potential harm to consumers and creators, and whether consolidation would significantly lessen competition or raise prices.

Mounting Legal and Political Challenges

Lipman’s optimism comes even as opposition coalesces on several fronts. A consumer class‑action lawsuit filed this week in federal court in California seeks to block Netflix’s proposed $72 billion purchase of Warner Bros.’ studio and streaming operations, alleging it would “substantially lessen competition” in subscription video on demand and hand Netflix control over marquee franchises such as Harry Potter, DC Comics and “Game of Thrones.” Legal scholars note that private antitrust suits rarely stop megamergers on their own, but they can add pressure and shape the public narrative.

Politically, Trump finds himself in the crosshairs of competing factions. Conservative influencers have urged him to torpedo the Netflix deal, citing the streamer’s production partnership with Barack Obama’s Higher Ground and the presence of former Obama adviser Susan Rice on Netflix’s board as evidence of an emerging liberal media powerhouse. At the same time, business allies linked to the Ellison and Kushner camps are pressing for the Paramount transaction, which they argue could be structured to draw less antitrust scrutiny and keep Netflix’s power in check.

Why Lipman Thinks Trump Ultimately “Climbs Aboard”

Against that backdrop, Lipman’s prediction that “the deal gets done” rests on two main pillars: antitrust math and political incentives. On competition grounds, regulators would be weighing a merger that still leaves Netflix with a minority share of total TV viewing, competing against YouTube, Disney, Amazon and others — not a classic single‑firm monopoly in a market with many powerful players.

Politically, Trump has publicly praised Sarandos as a “fantastic person” and has signaled that jobs and American industrial strength are his primary concerns. Netflix’s argument that its deal would preserve and expand employment across production hubs — while a Paramount takeover would depend on billions of dollars in cost cuts — dovetails with that narrative. For a White House eager to claim credit for a booming entertainment sector, giving the green light to a deal framed as pro‑jobs and pro‑investment could prove politically attractive — especially if Trump can also claim to have extracted concessions or conditions that address competition worries.

The Road Ahead: Protracted Scrutiny, but Strong Odds

None of this means the path will be smooth. Analysts expect at least an 18‑month review in the U.S., followed by scrutiny in Europe and other key markets, with conditions on licensing, windowing and data practices all on the table. The $5.8 billion breakup fee baked into the Netflix–Warner agreement underscores how seriously both sides take the regulatory risk — and how confident they are that they can overcome it.

For now, Lipman’s forecast offers a clear if controversial headline: despite rival bids, lawsuits, and ideological warfare over the future of streaming, the regulatory expert believes Trump will ultimately climb aboard and let Netflix’s acquisition proceed. In an era when media consolidation and presidential influence rarely travel separate paths, that alone makes this one of the most consequential corporate dramas of the decade.